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During a presentation Kirby gave in May, he mentioned that someone had paid California to study only the three year olds and that in the first quarter of 2007 their autism rate declined. This quarter they went down again. And how sad is it that a private citizen had to pay California to run autism numbers on 3 year olds? If they wanted to know what was going on with the children in that state, they would have run the numbers on their own. Is Autism Declining?
David Kirby
HuffPo
Posted July 12, 2007 | 02:28 AM (EST)
For quite some time, the American government, health establishment and mainstream media have repeated the mantra that mercury containing vaccines were eliminated "several years ago," yet the number of autism cases continues to climb - the inference being that injecting organic mercury into newborn babies has now been proven to be 100% safe.
The problem, though, is that there is no proof that mercury was eliminated "years ago" and, more importantly, now there are signs that autism rates among the youngest children might actually be falling.
On Wednesday, the California Department of Developmental Services released data from the second quarter of 2007, showing that the number of 3-5 year olds with autism in the state system increased by 169 children over the first quarter of 2007. This is about the same quarterly increase seen in the state over the past several years.
But it turns out that a private citizen has paid the state each quarter to analyze the autism numbers according to year of birth, and not just by age group. State law requires that such privately funded analyses be made available to anyone else who asks for it.
So I asked for it. What I got was rather interesting.
After breaking down the current data among 3-5 year olds by year of birth, you notice that the number of cases among children born in 2002 (who are now roughly five years old) and 2003 (or roughly four years old) continued to go up.
But among those kids born in 2004 (who are now turning three years old) the number of cases has fallen, as compared to kids born in 2003.
For example, at the midpoint of 2006, there were 2,250 children born in 2001 (or roughly, five-year olds) with autism counted in the system. By the same period of 2007, the number of kids with autism born in 2002 had risen to 2,490, an increase of 240 children, or 10.7%.
Among "four year olds," the increase was even more dramatic, with 326 more kids diagnosed with autism midway in 2007 than in 2006, a startling jump of 17%.
But among the very youngest kids counted, the story was the opposite. At the end of June 2006, there were 688 children born in 2003 with autism diagnoses. This June, the number of kids born in 2004 with autism was 632, a statistically significant drop of 56 children, or 8.1% less than last year at this time.
This marks the second drop of its kind among the youngest children in California (which tracks "full spectrum" autism only, and not milder forms of the disorder). It follows the first quarter of this year, when 251 children born in 2004 entered the system, compared with 264 kids born in 2003 who were enrolled in the first quarter of 2006 - a modest decline of 13 students, or 4.9%.
Keep in mind that these drops are being reported despite the fact that:
1) Rates among kids born just one or two years earlier continue to spiral upward
2) California has experienced a recent baby boomlet (the number of 0-4 year olds rose by 9,369 in 2002, according to census estimates; but jumped by 62,393 in 2004).
3) Legal and illegal immigration continues to rise from countries that still use the full amount of mercury in childhood vaccines.
4) Aggressive early intervention campaigns have consistently brought down the average age of autism diagnoses.
Intriguing though the numbers may be, it is far too early to know if this refreshing downward movement will turn into a bona fide trend. The deficit of 56 children could be made up by the end of the year.
But the decline does not come in a vacuum. Minnesota, for example, tracks autism among children as young as two years of age, (though the counting is done through the school system, and is considered less reliable than California's data).
The rate of two-year-olds diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in Minnesota peaked in 2003, at 4.45-per-10,000 kids. By 2005, the rate fell to 3.88-per-10,000, and last year it was 3.55-per-10,000, a drop of 20.2% since 2003.
We will have to wait until these kids get a bit older to see if the decline holds true.
Meanwhile, back in California at the massive Kaiser Permanente healthcare, officials reported that, among 5-9 year olds in their system in 2006, the rate of ASD was 93-per-10,000. But among the youngest kids, 2-4 years old, it was 66-per-10,000 - some 40% lower.
One would naturally expect to see fewer 2-4 year olds than 5-9 year olds with an ASD diagnosis. But in 2004, Kaiser began recommending routine ASD screening for all children at 24 months of age. Presumably, the majority of the 2-4 year olds in the system have now been screened for ASD, which must, by definition, appear before age 3 for a diagnosis to be made.
Sadly, more 2-year-olds at Kaiser will end up with ASD, and some stragglers among the 3-and-4-year-olds will also turn up. But whether they can make up the 40% deficit compared with their older siblings remains to be seen.
Are autism rates dropping? I would never say they are for sure. We simply have to wait and see.
But there are tantalizing hints that autism is indeed starting to decline among the very youngest children, born and vaccinated more recently, when mercury was transitioned out of most shots.
Which brings us to the, mercury was removed "several years ago" mantra, whose best retort is probably: "Says who?"
According to the Boston Herald, the last mercury-containing shots given to US children expired back in 1999. The Washington Post, meanwhile, put the date at 2001, the FDA said it was 2002, the Institute of Medicine and the Immunization Action Coalition said 2003, and the Council of State Governments claimed it was "early 2004."
Who's right? We may never know. But we do know that companies were still manufacturing mercury-containing shots for American kids in 2001, and most vaccines have a shelf life of about two years. And we know that 90% of flu shots given to pregnant women and infants still contain the full amount of mercury today.
The number of California kids born in 2004 who have autism is, by any measure, still too high. True, we don't know how many of those 632 children were exposed to mercury in routine vaccines overseas, or flu shots here at home. But with numbers this lofty, it's highly unlikely that thimerosal alone was responsible for the entire autism epidemic.
If mercury is but one cause of autism, there must be other causes as well.
Let's say that autism cases among three-year-olds fall by 10% or so by year's end. Could thimerosal be the cause of 10% of autism cases? That would still mean tens of thousands of Americans injured by mercury in their vaccines. Moreover, identifying the cause in just 10% of cases might help us discover what is causing the other 90%.
But I am writing way ahead of myself here.
Regardless of one's position on the mercury-autism contretemps, I hope everyone can agree that an actual drop in the numbers, no matter what the cause, would provide a welcome respite from the endless chorus of grim news we all seem to face these days. UPDATE: Roy Grinker, epidemic denier at GW, leaves an comment on the HuffPo piece, but doesn't use his real name. Kirby calls him out and offers a public debate. From David Kirby on the Evidence of Harm Yahoo List: RE: This comment on Huffpost:
“Unfortunately, Mr. Kirby continues to believe that California's DDS enrollment figures constitute epidemiological data. They do not. The author even makes a claim about statistical significance! He also introduces a new term into the discussion -- "full spectrum" -- (which he suggests is equivalent to Autistic Disorder) -- and states that the DDS counts only Autistic Disorder, not PDD-NOS, or Asperger's, or Down's Syndrome children with autism, or any other phenotype. This is absolutely wrong. Not even the best epidemiological studies are particularly good at distinguishing among the subtypes. It is truly disappointing to see the Huffington Post continue to publish phony epidemiology.”
Signed: Mfano
But “backstage” I see that his email is actually rgrink@gwu.edu
If Dr. Grinker would like to debate this subject out in the open, using his real name, I would be more than happy to take part. You would think that someone of his stature would have more pressing things to do with George Washington University’s time and bandwidth than send anonymous, erroneous comments to national political blogs. Update: From another EOH list member on Grinker's posting practices: ...If you search some of his (Mfano) previous posts you
will also note that he enjoys using the third person when discussing
himself:
"So Foresam, tell us: how Grinker should look for autistic adults?
The woman Grinker and Chew wrote about in the blog wasn't on record
anywhere as autistic. Grinker doesn't say, but she probably bit
herself and smeared *** too. No one missed her. She was called
mentally retarded and given lots of treatment and care. She just
wasn't called autistic"...
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California legislators need to hear from ALL of us on AB 16 BEFORE July 11! California’s AB 16, approved last week by the Senate Education Committee, would remove all public input and legislative review on childhood vaccines added to the mandatory immunization schedule, automatically adding every new vaccine approved by the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). - Passage of this bill will set a dangerous precedent for all of us, whether or not we live in California.
- We’ve seen what public input has done to prevent Gardasil from becoming mandated in some states, as even many in the mainstream medical community opposed forcing the HPV shot on young girls.
- Merck, the drug company behind AB 16 and Gardasil, wants to ensure that public opinion, scientific debate, and common sense will never again stand in the way of profit.
- If this bill passes in California, similar legislation will most likely find its way to every other state.
PLEASE ACT NOW! The California Senate Health Committee meets this Wednesday, July 11. PLEASE CALL, FAX, OR EMAIL EACH MEMBER OF THE COMMITTEE LISTED BELOW WITH LINKS TO CONTACT INFORMATION, AND TELL THEM TO VOTE NO ON AB 16: Senator Sheila Kuehl (Chair)
Senator Samuel Aanestad (Vice Chair)
Senator Gilbert Cedillo
Senator Dave Cox
Senator Abel Maldonado
Senator Gloria Negrete McLeod
Senator Mark Ridley-Thomas
Senator Darrell Steinberg
Senator Mark Wyland
Senator Leland Yee Last week’s testimony from parent Rick Rollens is below. Please read this powerful statement, contact the California Senate Health Committee members now, and pass this message along to family members and friends. We can’t let Merck get away with stealing our civil rights, gaining even more power to foist poorly tested and potentially harmful products on our children. Mr. Chairman and Members:
My name is Rick Rollens. This is my 33 year of being in and around the Capitol. For 24 years I served in the State Senate in numerous positions including a chief of staff to a Senator, chief consultant to the Senate Rules Committee, creator and director of the Office of Senate Floor Analyses, and finally as Secretary of the Senate. In 1996 I resigned my post ion as Secretary of the Senate in order to dedicate my life to finding effective treatments and a cure for my beloved son Russell who suffers from vaccine induced regressive autism. Since leaving the Senate, I have been extremely active in the autism world. I am a co-founder of FEAT...Families for Early Autism Treatment, a co-founder of the UC Davis M.I.N.D. Institute, a Speaker's appointee to the Legislative Blue Ribbon Commission on Autism, Superintendent O'Connell's appointee to his Autism Advisory Committee, I have served as a national board member of ASA, the NIH Autism Advisory Committee, and currently serve on numerous autism organizations throughout California, the nation, and the world. My family and I have been featured in dozens of local, state, national and international media stories about autism and the autism epidemic, the crown jewel of them all is this (SHOW NEWSWEEK) cover story in Newsweek magazine that featured my son Russell on the cover and a feature on Russell's story of his decent into autism at 6 months old after receiving numerous shots at his well baby check up and immediately suffering a classic adverse vaccine reaction leading to his acquired full syndrome autism. That day changed his life and the lives of ALL who know and love him. Russell is not alone. Today, California is adding 10 new children a day, seven days a week, like Russell to our DD system. In 1980 when California first enacted it's mandatory immunization law, autism accounted for 3% of all the intakes into our DD system. Today, autism only the fastest growing condition entering the system but now accounts for 64% of all the new intakes. In 1980 the incidence of autism was 1 in 10,000, today it is 1-150, and in some areas high as 1-84 children. Twenty years ago there were 2700 persons with autism in our system, today there are 34,000. In the past 9 months alone, we added more children with autism to our system then we did over the 16 YEAR period from 1971-1987! 886 new children in the past 3 months alone. The most telling fact is that over 91%, or 9 out of 10 persons currently in our system were born after 1980, the year that California's mandatory immunization law was enacted. There is a tsunami of young children aged 3 to 17 years old accounting for nearly 80% of the autism population moving through the system. I am here today to vehemently oppose AB 16. AB 16 represents an outrageous and arrogant attempt by the makers of the HPV vaccine and Vioxx, as well as those who front for them in the public health community, to strip away from the Legislature and the Governor the responsibility that has been in statute for nearly 30 years to review and approve or reject the addition of new vaccines to the mandatory childhood immunization schedule; and instead, turn over that responsibility to one and a group of their own, a non-accountable bureaucrat, the state Director of Public Health and a Committee 3,000 miles away of vaccine promoters who have yet to reject an application for adding a new vaccine to the schedule, and numerous members of which are personally and professionally conflicted for accepting research and professional funding and career opportunities from the same vaccine manufactures that are suppose to be regulating. Their behavior and actions have become subject to Congressional investigation and review. AB 16 as introduced would have added Merck's HPV vaccine to the mandatory schedule. After extensive public hearing and debate in the Assembly Health Committee, it was clear that there was little support to approve the bill and the author refused to even let the bill come up for a vote. This was the second new vaccine that has been rejected by the Legislature in the past five years. I guess enough was enough in the minds of the vaccine manufacturers and their followers. The bill was subsequently gutted and amended the bill to include the provisions before you today. Keep in mind, that today in California children receive up to 30 doses of vaccines by the age of 6 years old, most of which are administered starting moments after birth through the first two years of life when healthy brain development is most important. If the provisions of AB 16 had been in effect during this current decade, the number of doses of vaccines our children would have been subjected to would have increased to 40 doses. Throughout the country, including right here at the M.I.N.D. Institute, dozens of research projects are currently underway examining the connection between the immune system, vaccines, and autism. And lastly, be aware that there are over 300 new vaccines currently in development and in the pipeline, including vaccines for such things as nicotine addiction, diarrhea, mononucleosis, cocaine, methamphetamine, and stomach ulcers. These vaccines, as well as vaccines currently in use today contain such potent toxic and poisonous agents as mercury, aluminum, formaldehyde, aborted fetal tissue, MSG, live viruses, and killed bacteria. Mr. Chairman and Members, the system we have in place today has served us well for nearly three decades. You and your constituents and future members of the legislature and their constituents have a real say in the very serious issue of what new vaccines are added to MANDATORY childhood immunization schedule. There is sunshine in the current process, this bill takes away the sunshine away and replaces it with a wink and a nod by unaccountable bureaucrats and members of a Committee that have not seen a vaccine they can say no to.
On behalf of the children and their families of today, and the children yet to be born, please reject this horrific proposal. Keep this process in the hands of the people's representatives, do not hand over the future of our children's very health to those who would profit both personally and professionally by approving this bill. Please vote no. Thank you.
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California is considering a bill that would take control of the mandated vaccine schedule out of the hands of the state authorities and hand the decision making over to a federal board. The federal boards and their symbiotic relationships with the pharmaceutical industry are what got us in this mess in the first place. From California based Talk About Curing Autism: California Residents - Vaccine Mandate Bill to Be Heard Wednesday
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Please contact the members of the Senate Education Committee listed below and ask that they vote "no" on AB 16. You can write, e-mail, call, or show up and testify against the bill on Wednesday. Click on each name below for contact information.
California State Senate Education Committee Members:
Senator Jack Scott(Chair)
Senator Mark Wyland (Vice Chair)
Senator Elaine Alquist
Senator Jeff Denham
Senator Abel Maldonado
Senator Alex Padilla
Senator Gloria Romero
Senator Joe Simitian
Senator Tom Torlakson
AB 16 (Hernandez), the bill that, among other things, would remove the review of the public and the approval by the Legislature and Governor of all new childhood vaccine mandates for every child in California and; instead, would automatically add every new vaccine recommended by a public health/vaccine manufacturer controlled panel adding dozens of new vaccines to the already 30 doses of vaccines California children receive today. It is the most significant bill ever introduced effecting children and vaccines since 1980 when California first mandated vaccines for California's children. This bill is a horrible example of special interest legislation. In my 34 years of working in and around the Capitol it is the worst.
The bill passed the Assembly after long and contentious debate, and will now be heard this Wednesday, June 27 at 9:30am by the Senate Education Committee in Room 4203, State Capitol.
Below is a copy of the bill as well as my testimony.
-Rick Rollens
Mr. Chairman and Members:
My name is Rick Rollens. This is my 33 year of being in and around the Capitol. For 24 years I served in the State Senate in numerous positions including a chief of staff to a Senator, chief consultant to the Senate Rules Committee, creator and director of the Office of Senate Floor Analyses, and finally as Secretary of the Senate. In 1996 I resigned my post ion as Secretary of the Senate in order to dedicate my life to finding effective treatments and a cure for my beloved son Russell who suffers from vaccine induced regressive autism.
Since leaving the Senate, I have been extremely active in the autism world. Iam a co-founder of FEAT...Families for Early Autism Treatment, a co-founder of the UC Davis M.I.N.D. Institute, a Speaker's appointee to the Legislative Blue Ribbon Commission on Autism, Superintendent O'Connell's appointee to his Autism Advisory Committee, I have served as a national board member of ASA, the NIH Autism Advisory Committee, and currently serve on numerous autism organizations throughout California, the nation, and the world. My family and I have been featured in dozens of local, state, national and international media stories about autism and the autism epidemic, the crown jewel of them all is this (SHOW NEWSWEEK) cover story in Newsweek magazine that featured my son Russell on the cover and a feature on Russell's story of his decent into autism at 6 months old after receiving numerous shots at his well baby check up and immediately suffering a classic adverse vaccine reaction leading to his acquired full syndrome autism. That day changed his life and the lives of ALL who know and love him. Russell is not alone.
Today, California is adding 10 new children a day, seven days a week, like Russell to our DD system. In 1980 when California first enacted it's mandatory immunization law, autism accounted for 3% of all the intakes into our DD system. Today, autism only the fastest growing condition entering the system but now accounts for 64% of all the new intakes. In 1980 the incidence of autism was 1 in 10,000, today it is 1-150, and in some areas high as 1-84 children. Twenty years ago there were 2700 persons with autism in our system, today there are 34,000. In the past 9 months alone, we added more children with autism to our system then we did over the 16 YEAR period from 1971-1987! 886 new children in the past 3 months alone.
The most telling fact is that over 91%, or 9 out of 10 persons currently in our system were born after 1980, the year that California's mandatory immunization law was enacted. There is a tsunami of young children aged 3 to 17 years old accounting for nearly 80% of the autism population moving through the system.
I am here today to vehemently oppose AB 16. AB 16 represents an outrageous and arrogant attempt by the makers of the HPV vaccine and Vioxx, as well as those who front for them in the public health community, to strip away from the Legislature and the Governor the responsibility that has been in statute for nearly 30 years to review and approve or reject the addition of new vaccines to the mandatory childhood immunization schedule; and instead, turn over that responsibility to one and a group of their own, a non-accountable bureaucrat, the state Director of Public Health and a Committee 3,000 miles away of vaccine promoters who have yet to reject an application for adding a new vaccine to the schedule, and numerous members of which are personally and professionally conflicted for accepting research and professional funding and career opportunities from the same vaccine manufactures that are suppose to be regulating. Their behavior and actions have become subject to Congressional investigation and review.
AB 16 as introduced would have added Merck's HPV vaccine to the mandatory schedule. After extensive public hearing and debate in the Assembly Health Committee, it was clear that there was little support to approve the bill and the author refused to even let the bill come up for a vote. This was the second new vaccine that has been rejected by the Legislature in the past five years. I guess enough was enough in the minds of the vaccine manufacturers and their followers. The bill was subsequently gutted and amended the bill to include the provisions before you today.
Keep in mind, that today in California children receive up to 30 doses of vaccines by the age of 6 years old, most of which are administered starting moments after birth through the first two years of life when healthy brain development is most important. If the provisions of AB 16 had been in effect during this current decade, the number of doses of vaccines our children would have been subjected to would have increased to 40 doses. Throughout the country,including right here at the M.I.N.D. Institute,dozens of research projects are currently underway examining the connection between the immune system, vaccines, and autism.
And lastly, be aware that there are over 300 new vaccines currently in development and in the pipeline, including vaccines for such things as nicotine addiction, diarrhea, mononucleosis, cocaine, mehamphetamine, and stomach ulcers. These vaccines, as well as vaccines currently in use today contain such potent toxic and poisonous agents as mercury, aluminum, formaldehyde, aborted fetal tissue, MSG, live viruses, and killed bacteria. Mr. Chairman and Members, the system we have in place today has served us well for nearly three decades. You and your constituents and future members of the legislature and their constituents have a real say in the very serious issue of what new vaccines are added to MANDATORY childhood immunization schedule. There is sunshine in the current process, this bill takes away the sunshine away and replaces it with a wink and a nod by unaccountable bureaucrats and members of a Committee that have not seen a vaccine they can say no to.
On behalf of the children and their families of today, and the children yet to be born, please reject this horrific proposal. Keep this process in the hands of the people's representatives, do not hand over the future of our children's very health to those who would profit both personally and professionally by approving this bill. Please vote no. Thank you.
Click here to read the full text of the bill.
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